A winter storm passing to the south of Long Island is likely to miss Deer Park and North Babylon and other south shore areas as an arctic cold front plows across the area Thursday evening into Friday morning.
The winter storm, a strong low, has raised numerous winter storm warnings across Maryland, Virginia, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, but meteorologists closely monitoring the storm expect it to mostly miss the Long Island metro area.
"Arctic cold front from the north will keep the bulk of moisture south of Long Island," News 12 meteorologist Rich Hoffman wrote on his Facebook page. "As of now, I think we see a little snow overnight into Friday morning."
The current forecasted track calls for any snow to begin around Deer Park and North Babylon late Thursday and only last a short time, wrapping up before mid-morning Friday. Accumulations range from trace amounts to 0.5 inches near Babylon, while Montauk could see as much as 2 inches out of the storm.
The arctic cold front will bring the Island much lower temperatures than previously seen over the past week – highs for Friday morning are around 35°.
Forecast models have slightly deviated from their tracks in recent runs, showing slight movement to the north. This storm's northern push could result in snowfall starting earlier around Long Island and, in turn, higher snowfall totals.
"If, if... the storm moves 20 miles north, and the moisture meets up with the cold air we could be looking at a few inches," Hoffman wrote. "Areas east of Route 112 have the best chance of seeing snow."
Forecasts with a slight shift to the north show snowfall amounts as high as 6 inches over Long Island.
Either way, the morning commute could be icy with what snow does fall melting and re-icing on roadways. Drivers are advised to take it slow and easy in the morning.
At this moment, there have no been any warnings or advisories issued by the National Weather Service.
We will continue to monitor the storm at Patch and let you know if the forecast changes!